Time-penalised Trees Decision Tree Regressor¶
Abstract of TpTDecisionTreeRegressor
Extracted from Valla (2024), "Time-penalised trees (TpT): introducing a new tree-based data mining algorithm for time-varying covariates".
This article introduces a new decision tree algorithm that accounts for time-varying covariates in the decision-making process. Traditional decision tree algorithms assume that the covariates are static and do not change over time, which can lead to inaccurate predictions in dynamic environments. Other existing methods suggest workaround solutions such as the pseudo-subject approach. The proposed algorithm utilises a different structure and a time-penalised splitting criterion that allows a recursive partitioning of both the covariates space and time. Relevant historical trends are then inherently involved in the construction of a tree, and are visible and interpretable once it is fit. This approach allows for innovative and highly interpretable analysis in settings where the covariates are subject to change over time. The effectiveness of the algorithm is demonstrated through a real-world data application in life insurance. The results presented in this article can be seen as an introduction or proof-of-concept of the time-penalised approach, and the algorithm's theoretical properties and comparison against existing approaches on datasets from various fields will be explored in forthcoming work.
Adapted to regression, this estimator applies the same time-penalised splitting criterion above inside DecisionTreeRegressor, replacing the classification impurity improvement with variance reduction (MSE) before applying the exponential time penalty.
What are features_group and non_longitudinal_features?
Two key attributes, features_group and non_longitudinal_features, enable algorithms to interpret the
temporal structure of longitudinal data.
- features_group: A list of lists where each sublist contains indices of a longitudinal attribute's waves, ordered from oldest to most recent. This captures temporal dependencies.
- non_longitudinal_features: A list of indices for static, non-temporal features excluded from the temporal matrix.
Proper setup of these attributes is critical for leveraging temporal patterns effectively.
TpTDecisionTreeRegressor ¶
Bases: DecisionTreeRegressor
Time-penalised Trees (TpT) Decision Tree Regressor for longitudinal data regression.
This regressor extends scikit-learn's DecisionTreeRegressor for longitudinal data by incorporating a
time-penalised split gain. At a node associated with a parent time \(t_p\), a candidate split evaluated
at time \(t_c\) yields an impurity improvement \(\Delta I\) (typically based on variance reduction / MSE),
which is penalised as \(G_\gamma = \Delta I \cdot e^{-\gamma (t_c - t_p)}\). In the current implementation,
\(t_c\) is encoded in the wave index of the splitting feature and \(t_p\) is propagated by the tree
builder, so the penalty depends on the time distance between successive splits. The splitter therefore
tends to prefer earlier waves (while allowing later waves deeper in the tree) unless later observations
bring a substantially stronger signal.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
gamma
|
float
|
Time-penalty rate \(\gamma\) in \(e^{-\gamma \Delta t}\). If not provided, falls back to
|
None
|
threshold_gain
|
float
|
Alias for |
None
|
features_group
|
List[List[int]]
|
Temporal grouping of feature indices (waves per covariate). |
None
|
criterion
|
str, default="friedman_mse"
|
Split criterion for regression. The intended criterion is MSE / variance reduction. (Other criteria may not be supported depending on the current Cython implementation.) |
'friedman_mse'
|
splitter
|
str, default="TpT"
|
Split strategy identifier. Must match the TpT splitter name exposed by the underlying Cython backend. |
'TpT'
|
max_depth
|
Optional[int], default=None
|
Maximum depth of the tree. If None, the tree expands until other stopping criteria apply. |
None
|
min_samples_split
|
int, default=2
|
Minimum number of samples required to split an internal node. |
2
|
min_samples_leaf
|
int, default=1
|
Minimum number of samples required to be at a leaf node. |
1
|
min_weight_fraction_leaf
|
float, default=0.0
|
Minimum weighted fraction of the sum of weights required in each leaf. |
0.0
|
max_features
|
Optional[Union[int, float, str]], default=None
|
Number of features to consider at each split. |
None
|
random_state
|
Optional[int], default=None
|
Controls randomness of feature sampling and tie-breaking. |
None
|
max_leaf_nodes
|
Optional[int], default=None
|
Grow a tree with at most |
None
|
min_impurity_decrease
|
float, default=0.0
|
Minimum (unpenalised) impurity decrease required to split. |
0.0
|
ccp_alpha
|
float, default=0.0
|
Complexity parameter used for Minimal Cost-Complexity Pruning. |
0.0
|
store_leaf_values
|
bool, default=False
|
Whether to store the samples that fall into leaves in the |
False
|
monotonic_cst
|
Optional[List[int]], default=None
|
Monotonic constraints for features (if supported by the underlying sklearn tree code and compatible with missing values / regression settings). |
None
|
Attributes:
| Name | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
n_features_in_ |
int
|
Number of features seen during fit (wide representation). |
tree_ |
Tree
|
The underlying fitted tree structure. |
feature_importances_ |
ndarray of shape (n_features,
|
Impurity-based feature importances (variance reduction based). |
Examples:
Basic Usage
Source code in scikit_longitudinal/estimators/trees/TpT/TpT_decision_tree_regressor.py
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fit(X, y, *args, **kwargs)
¶
Fit the Time-penalised Trees (TpT) Decision Tree Regressor to the training data.
This method trains the regressor using the provided training data and targets. It requires the features_group
parameter to be set, as the time-penalised splitter relies on it to read the wave index of each candidate split.
Parameters:
| Name | Type | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|---|
X
|
array-like of shape (n_samples, n_features)
|
The training input samples in wide format (features expanded over waves). |
required |
y
|
array-like of shape (n_samples,)
|
The target values (continuous). |
required |
*args
|
Additional positional arguments passed to the superclass |
()
|
|
**kwargs
|
Additional keyword arguments passed to the superclass |
{}
|
Returns:
| Name | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
TpTDecisionTreeRegressor |
The fitted regressor instance. |
Raises:
| Type | Description |
|---|---|
ValueError
|
If |